数学模型耦合驱动的入湖河道水质评价及污染源量化解析
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常州市生态环境监控中心,江苏 常州 213022

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X824;X52

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常州市生态环境保护专项(A202305190003)


Mathematical Model Coupling-Driven Water Quality Assessment and Quantitative Analysis of Pollution Sources in Taihu Lake Inflow Rivers
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Changzhou Ecological Environmental Monitoring Center, Changzhou, Jiangsu 213022, China

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    摘要:

    为精准识别入太湖河道水质时空变化特征与污染源贡献,基于11个监测点位时序水质监测数据,采用最近邻分类法、模糊综合评价法、聚类分析与绝对主成分得分-多元线性回归(APCS-MLR)模型,开展水质评价与污染源量化解析,并验证靶向治污方案成效。结果表明,入太湖河道水质时序上遵循“夏、秋污染重,冬、春水质优”的规律,夏季因农业面源输入与高温藻类增殖形成污染峰值;空间上划分为清洁区、过渡区与污染风险区,氮、磷与高锰酸盐指数为核心驱动因子。APCS-MLR模型识别出3类主要污染源,分别为生活源、农业面源和航运扰动源,而未知源以自然本底为主。典型点位经过靶向治理后,Ⅴ类水体占比降至0,污染超标月数由8个月缩减至1个月。构建的多模型耦合解析体系与“分源-分时”治理方案,为入太湖河道污染管控提供了精准的技术支撑。

    Abstract:

    To accurately identify the temporal and spatial characteristics of water quality and pollutant source contributions in the inflow rivers of Taihu Lake, this study conducted water quality evaluation, quantitative analysis of pollutant sources, and verification of targeted pollution control effectiveness based on time-series water quality data from 11 monitoring points. The methods employed included k-nearest neighbor(KNN), fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, cluster analysis, and the absolute principal component score-multiple linear regression(APCS-MLR) model. Results showed that the water quality of the inflow rivers followed the rule of “more polluted in summer and autumn, and better in winter and spring” temporally, with a pollution peak formed in summer due to agricultural non-point source input and high-temperature algae proliferation. Spatially, the study area was divided into clean areas, transition areas, and pollution risk areas, with nitrogen, phosphorus, and permanganate index as the core driving factors. The APCS-MLR model identified three main pollutant sources: domestic sources, agricultural non-point sources, and shipping-induced sediment resuspension pollution, while the unknown source was dominated by natural background. After targeted remediation at typical points, the proportion of Class Ⅴ water decreased to 0, and the number of pollution-exceeding months reduced from 8 to 1. The multi-model coupled analysis system and “sourcespecific and time-specific” governance plan constructed in this study provide precise and quantitative technical support for the pollution control of the inflow rivers of Taihu Lake.

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李姣,岑本强,张小娟,蒋乔峰.数学模型耦合驱动的入湖河道水质评价及污染源量化解析[J].环境监控与预警,2026,18(2):46-55

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  • 收稿日期:2025-11-11
  • 最后修改日期:2025-12-17
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-03-30
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