| 摘要: |
| 为探究聊城市大气降尘时空变化规律及影响因素,本文收集了2018—2023年聊城市大气降尘数据,研究了大气降尘的时空分布特征,预测了降尘量的变化趋势及未来5年数值,分析了降尘量与环境空气中PM10、PM2.5以及气象因子的相关性,并通过标准化方程计算了各气象因子对降尘量变化的相对贡献率。结果表明:2018—2023年聊城市降尘量Spearman秩相关系数结果显示降尘量变化趋势不显著,灰色预测模型均值GM (1,1)的预测结果显示未来5年降尘呈一个下降趋势,相对模拟误差为7.28%,2028年降尘量为3.744t·km-2·30d-1；降尘量季节变化趋势表现为先升高再降低,春季最高,秋季最低；月度分析结果显示,聊城市的降尘量最大值出现在3月份,均值为8.15t·km-2·30d-1,最低值出现在11月份,均值为3.90t·km-2·30d-1,未超过生态环境部2018年首次颁布的大气降尘国家考核目标(9t·km-2·30d-1)；空间分析结果显示聊城市降尘量呈“伞”状,其中位于东北方向的“伞尖”浓度最高,位于西南方向的“伞柄”浓度最低,说明聊城市降尘主要受来自内蒙古沙尘暴的影响；聊城市降尘量与环境空气中PM2.5、PM10的质量浓度相关性不高,说明降尘对环境空气的直接影响不大；3种气象因素(风速、温度、相对湿度)中风速和降尘量呈显著正相关关系,对降尘的相对贡献率为52.27%,相对湿度与降尘量呈显著负相关关系。 |
| 关键词: 降尘量 时空分布 预测分析 气象要素 相对贡献率 |
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| 基金项目:鲁西农村生物质燃烧源有机气溶胶的形成机制及毒理效应（山东省自然科学基金） |
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| Temporal and spatial variation of atmospheric dust fall in Liaocheng City and its influencing factors and prediction analysis |
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| Abstract: |
| In order to explore the spatio-temporal variation of atmospheric dust fall and its influencing factors in Liaocheng City, this paper collected the atmospheric dust fall data from 2018 to 2023, studied the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of atmospheric dust fall, predicted the change trend of dust fall and its value in the next five years, and analyzed the correlation between dust fall and PM10, PM2.5 and meteorological factors in the ambient air. The relative contribution rate of each meteorological factor to the change of dust fall is calculated by the standardized equation. The results show that: spearman rank correlation coefficient results of dust fall in Liaocheng City from 2018 to 2023 showed no significant change trend of dust fall, and the prediction result of the mean GM (1,1) of the gray prediction model showed a decreasing trend in the next 5 years, with a relative simulation error of 7.28%, and the dust fall in 2028 was 3.744t·km-2·30d-1. The seasonal variation trend of dust fall showed that it first increased and then decreased, the highest in spring and the lowest in autumn. The monthly analysis results showed that the maximum dust fall in Liaocheng City was in March, with an average value of 8.15t·km-2·30d-1, and the lowest value was in November, with an average value of 3.90t·km-2·30d-1, which did not exceed the national assessment target of atmospheric dust fall issued by the Ministry of Ecology for the first time in 2018 (9t·km-2·30d-1). The spatial analysis results show that the dust fall in Liaocheng is in the shape of "umbrella", in which the concentration of "umbrella tip" in the northeast direction is the highest, and the concentration of "umbrella handle" in the southwest direction is the lowest, indicating that the dust fall in Liaocheng is mainly affected by sandstorms from Inner Mongolia. The correlation between dust fall and PM2.5 and PM10 concentration in the ambient air is not high in Liaocheng City, indicating that the direct impact of dust fall on the ambient air is not large. Among the three meteorological factors (wind speed, temperature and relative humidity), wind speed had a significant positive correlation with dust fall, and the relative contribution rate to dust fall was 52.27%, and the relative humidity had a significant negative correlation with dust fall. |
| Key words: dust fall amount spatial and temporal distribution predictive parsing meteorological factors relative contribution rate |
