| 摘要: |
| 为了深入打好蓝天保卫战，保持巴中市环境空气质量的稳定和改善，基于2016～2023年巴中市国控监测点位的实况数据，对巴中市大气污染特征和空气质量变化趋势进行分析，运用时间序列分解模型Prophet模型对空气质量主要污染物浓度和综合指数进行预测。结果表明：2016～2023年，巴中市NO2 、CO、PM2.5、PM10浓度及空气质量综合指数呈下降趋势，空气质量得到明显改善。PM2.5、PM10污染天数呈下降趋势，O3污染天数呈阶梯上升趋势。环境空气质量超标原因主要由PM2.5造成，O3污染逐渐加重。O3浓度呈春夏季高、秋冬季低且年际变化幅度一致的特征。PM2.5和PM10浓度则呈冬季偏高且年际变化幅度较大的特征。基于Prophet模型的环境空气质量预测方法预测效果理想，线性拟合度高，表明该方法具有可行性。未来五年的预测结果显示：巴中市环境空气质量主要污染物浓度具有稳定的季节规律，NO2 、PM2.5、PM10浓度及综合指数缓慢下降，O3浓度上升但尚在安全范围内。该研究可为巴中市大气污染防治及污染预警等工作提供数据参考 |
| 关键词: 巴中市 空气质量 变化趋势 预测 Prophet |
| DOI： |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目: |
|
| The Change Characteristics and Prediction of ambient air quality in Bazhong City |
|
|
| Abstract: |
| To effectively combat air pollution and ensure the stability and enhancement of ambient air quality in Bazhong City, an analysis was conducted on the characteristics of air pollution and the change trend of air quality based on actual data from state controlling air monitoring stations in Bazhong City spanning from 2016 to 2023. Prophet model which is a time series decomposition model was used for prediction of concentration of key pollutants in air quality and the comprehensive index. The findings indicate that the concentration of NO2, CO, PM2.5, PM10 concentrations as well as the comprehensive index of air quality have declined from 2016 to 2023 which means air quality improved notably. Pollution days of PM2.5 and PM10 exhibited a decreasing trend whereas O3 showed an step upward over time. PM2.5 is a primary contributor to exceed standard of ambient air quality while O3 pollution increases progressively. O3 concentration is higher in spring and summer but lower in autumn and winter with consistent interannual variation range; meanwhile, higher concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 were observed during winter with substantial interannual variation range. The predictive results of air quality method based on Prophet model is ideal, the linearity is high, which indicates the feasibility of this method.By the next five years prediction, stable seasonal rhythm for main pollutant concentrations were observed, the concentration of NO2, PM2.5, PM10 and the comprehensive index of air quality slowly decline, the concentration of O3 increased but remained within limits of ambient air quality standard.This research provides valuable data reference for the work of air pollution prevention and pollution warning in Bazhong City. |
| Key words: Bazhong City air quality change trend prediction Prophet |
