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| 摘要: |
| 利用2015年环境空气质量监测数据，对天津市OPAQ空气质量统计预报模型预测效果进行验证评估。结果表明，模型对天津市AQIPM<sub>2.5</sub>、PM<sub>10</sub>、O<sub>3</sub>、NO<sub>2</sub>的预测结果与实测结果具有较好的趋势一致性，且预测时间越临近，拟合度越好，24h预报的相关系数r全部达到0.8以上。对PM<sub>2.5</sub>的预报性能明显优于PM<sub>10</sub>、O<sub>3</sub>和NO<sub>2</sub>，PM<sub>2.5</sub>平均值预测略呈正偏差，但重污染预测值偏低约15%；O<sub>3</sub>和NO<sub>2</sub>预测值呈明显负偏差，O<sub>3</sub>峰值预测不足，NO<sub>2</sub>预测值整体偏低，均以24h预报趋势性最好，但负偏差最为突出。 |
| 关键词: 天津 空气质量预报 OPAQ模型 效果评估 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:X823 |
| 文献标识码:B |
| 基金项目:国家科技支撑计划基金资助项目（2014BAC23B01）；天津市重大科技专项基金资助项目（14ZCDGSF00027） |
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| Effect Evaluation of Air Quality Forecast Model based on New Standard in Tianjin |
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GAO Jing yun， YANG Ning， BI Wen kai， XIAO Zhi mei， CHEN Kui， LI Yuan
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| Abstract: |
| Based on the comparison of environmental air quality monitoring data in 2015， the effect of OPAQ air quality statistical forecast model in Tianjin was evaluated. The results showed that the prediction of AQI and PM<sub>2.5</sub>， PM<sub>10</sub>， O<sub>3</sub>， NO<sub>2</sub>concentrations were in good agreement with the monitoring data， and the correlation coefficient was higher with the prediction time nearer.The correlation coefficient r of 24 hour forecast all reached more than 0.8. The prediction performance of PM<sub>2.5</sub> was better than that of PM<sub>10</sub>， O<sub>3</sub> and NO<sub>2</sub>， with a minor positive deviation than the average value， but the forecast value of heavy pollution was 15% lower. The predictions of O<sub>3</sub> and NO<sub>2</sub> were significantly negatively deviated， with O<sub>3</sub> peak value prediction underestimated and NO<sub>2</sub> prediction value low. The 24 hour forecast had the best tendency but the negative bias was the most prominent. |
| Key words: Tianjin Air quality forecast OPAQ model Effect evaluation |
