引用本文:高璟赟,杨宁,毕温凯,肖致美,陈魁,李源.天津市基于新标准的空气质量预报模型效果评估[J].环境监控与预警,2016,8(6):9-14
GAO Jing yun, YANG Ning, BI Wen kai, XIAO Zhi mei, CHEN Kui, LI Yuan.Effect Evaluation of Air Quality Forecast Model based on New Standard in Tianjin[J].Environmental Monitoring and Forewarning,2016,8(6):9-14
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天津市基于新标准的空气质量预报模型效果评估
高璟赟,杨宁,毕温凯,肖致美,陈魁,李源
天津市环境监测中心,天津 300191
摘要:
利用2015年环境空气质量监测数据,对天津市OPAQ空气质量统计预报模型预测效果进行验证评估。结果表明,模型对天津市AQIPM2.5、PM10、O3、NO2的预测结果与实测结果具有较好的趋势一致性,且预测时间越临近,拟合度越好,24h预报的相关系数r全部达到0.8以上。对PM2.5的预报性能明显优于PM10、O3和NO2,PM2.5平均值预测略呈正偏差,但重污染预测值偏低约15%;O3和NO2预测值呈明显负偏差,O3峰值预测不足,NO2预测值整体偏低,均以24h预报趋势性最好,但负偏差最为突出。
关键词:  天津  空气质量预报  OPAQ模型  效果评估
DOI:
分类号:X823
文献标识码:B
基金项目:国家科技支撑计划基金资助项目(2014BAC23B01);天津市重大科技专项基金资助项目(14ZCDGSF00027)
Effect Evaluation of Air Quality Forecast Model based on New Standard in Tianjin
GAO Jingyun, YANG Ning, BI Wenkai, XIAO Zhimei, CHEN Kui, LI Yuan
Tianjin Environmental Monitoring Center, Tianjin 300191, China
Abstract:
Based on the comparison of environmental air quality monitoring data in 2015, the effect of OPAQ air quality statistical forecast model in Tianjin was evaluated. The results showed that the prediction of AQI and PM2.5, PM10, O3, NO2concentrations were in good agreement with the monitoring data, and the correlation coefficient was higher with the prediction time nearer.The correlation coefficient r of 24 hour forecast all reached more than 0.8. The prediction performance of PM2.5 was better than that of PM10, O3 and NO2, with a minor positive deviation than the average value, but the forecast value of heavy pollution was 15% lower. The predictions of O3 and NO2 were significantly negatively deviated, with O3 peak value prediction underestimated and NO2 prediction value low. The 24 hour forecast had the best tendency but the negative bias was the most prominent.
Key words:  Tianjin  Air quality forecast  OPAQ model  Effect evaluation