广东省空气质量等级预报准确性评估

沈劲; 嵇萍; 周亦凌; 叶斯琪; 陈多宏<sup>*</sup>; 谢敏; 汪宇; 潘月云; 许凡; 蔡日东

引用本文:	沈劲，嵇萍，周亦凌，叶斯琪，陈多宏，谢敏，汪宇，潘月云，许凡，蔡日东.广东省空气质量等级预报准确性评估[J].环境监控与预警,2017,9(3):15-18
	SHEN Jin，JI Ping，ZHOU Yi ling，YE Si qi,CHEN Duo hong，XIE Min，WANG Yu，PAN Yue yun，XU Fan，CAI Ri dong.Discussion on the Assessment of Accuracy of Air Quality Grade Forecast in Guangdong Province[J].Environmental Monitoring and Forewarning,2017,9(3):15-18

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广东省空气质量等级预报准确性评估
沈劲，嵇萍，周亦凌，叶斯琪，陈多宏，谢敏，汪宇，潘月云，许凡，蔡日东
广东省环境监测中心，国家环境保护区域空气质量监测重点实验室，广东广州 510308

摘要:

对广东省空气质量等级预报准确性评估进行了探讨，结果表明，在不区分污染等级的情况下，2016年夏季广东各市的预报准确性差异较大，中山预报准确性达92%，是全省唯一一个准确性超过90%的城市，云浮最低，为53%。在区分污染等级时，实测为轻度及以上污染级别的情况下，各市的准确性普遍较低，仅佛山、东莞与广州的准确性达50%以上，而有11个城市的准确性为0。综合考虑不同污染级别的准确性得分后，佛山市排名第1，较不区分污染等级时的排名提前9名。指出，采用区分污染等级的预报效果评估办法更加适合广东空气污染较轻的区域。在首要污染物为臭氧的情况下，广东省平均的等级预报准确性低于首要污染物为其他物种的情况。

关键词: 广东省空气质量等级预报准确性评估

DOI：

分类号:X51

文献标识码:A

基金项目:国家科技支撑计划基金资助项目（2014BAC21B03）

Discussion on the Assessment of Accuracy of Air Quality Grade Forecast in Guangdong Province

SHEN Jin，JI Ping，ZHOU Yiling，YE Siqi,CHEN Duohong，XIE Min，WANG Yu，PAN Yueyun，XU Fan，CAI Ridong

Guangdong Environmental Monitoring Center, State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Regional Air Quality Monitoring, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510308,China

Abstract:

The accuracy assessment of air quality forecast in Guangdong province was discussed. Results showed that in case of not to distinguish the pollution levels, forecast accuracy of all cities in Guangdong Province are quite different. Forecast accuracy of Zhongshan was 92%. It was the only city whose accuracy was more than 90%. Yunfu ranked the lowest, with accuracy 53%. In case of distinguishing the pollution levels, in condition of measured air quality grade above light pollution, the accuracy was generally lower. Only the accuracy of Foshan, Dongguan and Guangzhou was more than 50%, while the accuracy of the other cities was 0. Considering the accuracy of different pollution levels, Foshan ranked first, ranking nine further than that in case of not distinguishing the pollution levels. Distinguishing pollution levels was more suitable for assessment of air quality grade forecast in Guangdong, where lighter air pollution takes place. In the case of ozone as the primary pollutant, the average forecast accuracy of Guangdong was lower than that in the case of other species as the primary pollutant.

Key words: Guangdong Province Air quality Grade forecast Assessment of accuracy