引用本文:余进海,张美根,韩霄,李荣,李驰钦.2017年江苏省PM2.5数值模拟及内外源解析[J].环境监控与预警,2021,13(2):14-18
YU Jin-hai,ZHANG Mei-gen,HAN Xiao,LI Rong,LI Chi-qin.Numerical Simulation and Endogenous and Exogenous Source Apportionment of PM2.5 over Jiangsu Province in 2017[J].Environmental Monitoring and Forewarning,2021,13(2):14-18
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2017年江苏省PM2.5数值模拟及内外源解析
余进海,张美根,韩霄,李荣,李驰钦
作者单位
余进海1,张美根2,韩霄2,李荣3,李驰钦4 1.江苏省环境监测中心江苏 南京 2100192.中国科学院大气物理研究所大气边界层物理和大气化学国家重点实验室,北京 1000293.湖北大学资源环境学院湖北 武汉 4300624.江苏省气象台江苏 南京 210008 
摘要:
根据江苏省72个国控点监测数据,采用了区域大气模式和多尺度空气质量模式系统(RAMS-CMAQ)模拟了2017年江苏省ρ(PM2.5)的时空分布,耦合综合源追踪算法(ISAM)分析了不同地区排放源对ρ(PM2.5)的贡献特征。结果表明,PM2.5模拟与观测值的相关系数(r)=0.76,标准平均偏差(NMB)=5.2%,均方根误差(RMSE)=23.4μg/m3,模拟结果落于观测结果0.5~2倍的比例(FAC2)=84.2%。源追踪模块结果显示,夏季主要受东南风控制,本地排放的贡献更大(省内贡献为52.34%),其他季节受偏北风输送影响,外源输送的影响较大(省外贡献为53.48%~56.84%);冬季苏北5市的排放贡献比沿江8市的更大,而春、夏季沿江8市排放贡献较大。
关键词:  细颗粒物  多尺度空气质量模式系统  源追踪模块  江苏省
DOI:
分类号:X831
文献标识码:B
基金项目:江苏省环境监测科研基金资助项目(1823,1917)
Numerical Simulation and Endogenous and Exogenous Source Apportionment of PM2.5 over Jiangsu Province in 2017
YU Jin-hai,ZHANG Mei-gen,HAN Xiao,LI Rong,LI Chi-qin
Abstract:
According to the data acquired from 72 state controlledmonitoring sites,a source apportionment tool, ISAM (Integrated Source Apportionment Method), coupled with a regional air quality modeling system, RAMS CMAQ (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System and Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling System), was applied to simulate thespatio temporal distribution of PM2.5over Jiangsu in 2017,and the contribution characteristic of the sources in different zones to ρ(PM2.5)was analyzed. Comparisons of simulated and observed PM2.5 showed that the model can reproduce seasonal patterns reasonably well. The correlation coefficient (r) was 0.76, the standard mean deviation (NMB) was 5.2%, the root mean square error (RMSE) was 23.4 μg/m3, and FAC2 was 84.2%. In summer,influenced by southeasterly wind, the local contribution (52.34%) is greater than regional transport, while regional contribution (53.48%~56.84%) in other seasons was greater. In winter, the influence of five cities in northern Jiangsu Province is greater than that of eight cities along the Yangtze River, while that of eight cities along the Yangtze River in spring and summer is greater.
Key words:  PM2.5  CMAQ  Source apportionment model  Jiangsu province