引用本文:王情,许怀悦,朱欢欢,马润美,班婕,李湉湉.2015年中国PM2.5相关超额死亡数集成评估[J].环境监控与预警,2021,13(5):45-51
WANG Qing, XU Huai-yue, ZHU Huan-huan, MA Run-mei, BAN Jie, LI Tian-tian.Integrated Assessment of PM2.5 Related Excess Mortality in China in 2015[J].Environmental Monitoring and Forewarning,2021,13(5):45-51
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2015年中国PM2.5相关超额死亡数集成评估
王情,许怀悦,朱欢欢,马润美,班婕,李湉湉1,2
1. 中国疾病预防控制中心环境与人群健康重点实验室,环境与健康相关产品安全所,北京 100021;2.河北科技大学环境科学与工程学院,河北 石家庄 050027
摘要:
环境空气细颗粒物(PM2.5)污染是我国目前较为突出的环境问题,也对人群健康造成严重威胁。基于国内外5套不同来源的2015年中国PM2.5年均暴露浓度数据和5种暴露-反应关系(exposure response,ER)模型,设置了不同PM2.5暴露浓度与E R模型的25种组合情景,评估了2015年中国归因于环境PM2.5导致的超额死亡数。结果表明,2015年全国(覆盖2 826个区县)PM2.5相关超额死亡数为75.0万~256.5万例,其中应用国内E R模型评估得到的超额死亡数(186.0万~256.5万例)大于国外模型评估得到的超额死亡数(75.0万~133.2万例);空间分布上,京津冀、河南、山东等重污染地区及人口密度较大地区的PM2.5相关疾病负担较重,这些地区需制定更严格的政策来改善空气质量及保护公众健康。指出,我国地面监测站获得的暴露数据通常会高估全国PM2.5的实际浓度均值,运用多套PM2.5暴露浓度数据和多种E R模型评估疾病负担,有利于减少评估的不确定性。提出,应加强我国PM2.5与人群健康的队列研究及数据积累,以获取更准确的ER关系,提升PM2.5相关疾病负担评估结果的准确性。
关键词:  中国  空气污染  细颗粒物  慢性死亡效应  超额死亡数
DOI:
分类号:R12;X513
基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(42071433,92043301);能源基金会资助项目(G-1905-29574)
Integrated Assessment of PM2.5 Related Excess Mortality in China in 2015
WANG Qing, XU Huai-yue, ZHU Huan-huan, MA Run-mei, BAN Jie, LI Tian-tian1,2
1. China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100021, China;2. School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hebei University of Science and Technology, Shijiazhuang, Hebei 050027, China
Abstract:
Ambient PM2.5 pollution is currently a serious environmental problem, and it also poses a serious threat to human health. This study sets a scenario matrix including 25 parameter set scenarios based on PM2.5 exposure data from 5 sources and 5 E R relationship models from both domestic and international studies, to estimate and compare the number of PM2.5 related excess mortality in China in 2015 under the different scenarios. The number of PM2.5 related excess mortality nationwide (covering 2 826 counties) is from 750 thousand to 2.565 million. The estimated excess mortality using the domestic E R relationship models (1.86 million ~2.565 million) is greater than that of the foreign E R relationship models ( 750 thousand ~1.332 million). Spatially, the heavily polluted areas with high population density like Beijing Tianjin Hebei region, Henan and Shandong have a higher disease burden from PM2.5, which need stricter policies to improve air quality and to protect public health. The exposure data obtained by ground monitoring usually overestimate the actual average concentration of PM2.5 across the country. Using multiple sets of PM2.5 concentration modelling data and multiple E R models to assess disease burden can reduce the uncertainty of the assessment. The cohort research and data accumulation on PM2.5 and population health should be strengthened to obtain more accurate E R relationships and improve the accuracy of assessment on PM2.5 related disease burden.
Key words:  China  Air pollution  PM2.5  Chronic mortality effect  Excess mortality