碳排放强度与能耗强度线性关系研究

葛斌<sup>1</sup>; 王军霞<sup>2</sup>; 陈乾坤<sup>2 *</sup>

引用本文:	葛斌，王军霞，陈乾坤.碳排放强度与能耗强度线性关系研究[J].环境监控与预警,2022,14(4):90-94
	GE Bin, WANG Jun-xia, CHEN Qian-kun.Study on the Linear Relationship between Carbon Emission Intensity and Energy Consumption Intensity[J].Environmental Monitoring and Forewarning,2022,14(4):90-94

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碳排放强度与能耗强度线性关系研究
葛斌，王军霞，陈乾坤^1,2
1.南通市生态环境局，江苏南通 226007;2.中国环境监测总站，北京 100012

摘要:

碳排放强度与能耗强度是国家和地方2个重要的政策管控指标，二者存在潜在的逻辑关系，但就二者定量关系还存在分析不足，部分认识不统一的现象。通过建立碳排放强度同比变化率与能耗强度同比变化率之间关系的数学模型，分析能耗强度同比变化场景下碳排放强度同比变化趋势。对单位地区生产总值碳排放强度与单位地区生产总值能耗强度之间的线性关系进行了研究。结果表明，碳排放强度同比变化率与能耗强度同比变化率不是必然呈现“同正或同负”的关系，即能耗强度上升，碳排放强度也有可能下降；能耗强度下降，碳排放强度也有可能上升。研究为推动碳排放强度、能耗强度“双下降”的研究和决策提供参考。

关键词: 碳排放强度能耗强度线性关系

DOI：

分类号:X24

基金项目:

Study on the Linear Relationship between Carbon Emission Intensity and Energy Consumption Intensity

GE Bin, WANG Jun-xia, CHEN Qian-kun^1,2

1. Ecology Environment Bureau of Nantong Municipality, Nantong，Jiangsu 226007, China;2. China National Environmental Monitoring Centre, Beijing 100012, China

Abstract:

Carbon emission intensity and energy consumption intensity are two important national and local policy control indicators. There is a potential logical relationship between carbon emission intensity and energy consumption intensity, but the quantitative relationship between them is still insufficient and inconsistent. The paper studies the linear relationship between carbon emission intensity per unit of regional gross domestic product and energy intensity per unit of regional gross domestic product. By establishing the mathematical model, the relationship between the year on year change rate of carbon emission intensity and the year on year change rate of energy consumption intensity is analyzed. The results show that the relationship of year on year change rate of carbon emission intensity and the year on year change rate of energy consumption intensity is not “simultaneously positive or simultaneously negative”, that is, the intensity of energy consumption increases, and the intensity of carbon emissions may also decreases; the energy consumption intensity may decrease while the carbon emission intensity may increase. It is expected to provide reference for promoting the research and decision making of “double decline” of carbon emission intensity and energy consumption intensity.

Key words: Carbon emission intensity Energy consumption intensity Linear relationship