| 摘要: |
| 工业园区是中国工业产业、人才和先进要素集聚发展的核心单元，也是能源消耗和碳排放最集中的地区之一。双碳（碳达峰和碳中和）目标下，各类工业园区将在双碳战略实践中发挥至关重要的作用。分析了工业园区碳排放特征，构建碳排放识别模型，利用系数法、宏观和微观结合的方法核算工业园区碳排放数据；应用Kaya恒等式、改进可拓展的随机性的环境影响评估模型（STIRPAT）、对数平均权重分配模型（LMDI），分析了工业园区碳排放的主要影响因素和低碳发展思路；应用能源-环境情景分析模型（LEAP）规划工业园区绿色发展路径，为工业园区碳达峰与碳中和行动提供技术支持。 |
| 关键词: 工业园区 绿色发展 碳达峰 碳中和 改进STIRPAT模型 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:X321 |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFF0601000) |
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| Green Development Path of Industrial Park under Dual Carbon Target |
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YANG Kaiyu， MAO Zhixin
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Carbon Neutralization Research Institute，Jiangxi Provincial Electric Power Construction Co.， Ltd.，Power Construction Corporation of China， Nanchang， Jiangxi 310003， China
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| Abstract: |
| The industrial park is the core unit for the concentrated development of Chinas industries， talents and advanced elements， and is also one of the places where energy consumption and carbon emissions are most concentrated. Under the dual carbon goal， various parks will play a crucial role in the practice of the “dual carbon” strategy.In this paper， the characteristics of carbon emission in the industrial park are analyzed， a carbon emission identification model is built， the carbon emission data in the industrial park is calculated by using the coefficient method combined with the “top down” and “bottom up” methods， the main influencing factors of carbon emission in the industrial park and low carbon development ideas are analyzed by using Kaya identity， improved STIRPAT (Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population， Affluence， and Technology) model and LMDI（Logarithmic Mean Weight Divisia Index）model， and the green development path of the industrial park are planned by using LEAP（Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning System/Low emission analysis platform） model. The current research provides technical support for carbon peak and carbon neutralization in the industrial park. |
| Key words: Industrial park Green development Carbon peak Carbon neutralization Improved STIRPAT model |
