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盐城市空气污染对呼吸系统日门诊量关系的时间序列分析
黄连成1, 汤权1, 沈进进1, 咸月2
1.盐城市疾病预防控制中心;2.盐城市环境监测中心站
摘要:
根据盐城市2014~2018年逐日空气污染物资料(PM2.5、PM10、NO2、SO2、O3)、气象资料(日平均温度、日平均相对湿度)及市区某三甲综合医院呼吸系统日门诊资料,采用时间序列半参数广义相加模型,以滞后天数最大效应值作为空气污染物对人群呼吸系统日门诊量影响的超额危险度,分析了盐城市空气污染物短期暴露对人群呼吸系统日门诊量的影响。结果显示:2014~2018年盐城市空气PM2.5、PM10、NO2、SO2和O3年平均浓度分别为48.4?g/m3、81.8?g/m3、26.3?g/m3、15.8?g/m3、111.2?g/m3,其中PM2.5、PM10高于《GB 2095-2012环境空气质量标准》二级标准。污染物PM2.5、PM10、NO2、SO2和O3每升高10?g/m3,呼吸系统日门诊量增加0.52%、0.31%、3.54%、4.36%、0.03%,SO2效应最强。空气污染物的短期暴露影响呼吸系统日门诊量,且存在滞后效应,其中PM2.5、PM10、NO2、SO2影响较大。
关键词:  盐城  空气污染  呼吸系统疾病  时间序列分析  广义相加模型
DOI:
分类号:中图分类号:R181.3
基金项目:国家科技基础资源调查专项;江苏省环境监测科研基金项目
A time - series study of air pollution and hospital outpatients with respiratory diseases in Yancheng City
黄连成
Abstract:
The data of air pollutions(PM2 .5, PM10, NO2, SO2 and O3), meteorological data(daily mean temperature, daily mean relative humidity) and daily outpatient visits due to respiratory system in The Third hospitals of Yancheng City during 2014-2018 were collected. The models of single pollutant analysis developed by using generalized additive model were used to analyze the exposure-effect relationship between air pollutants and hospital admission for respiratory system.To investigate the effect of short-term exposure of air pollutants on daily outpatient rate of respiratory system of the population in Yancheng. According to the research results,The annual average concentrations of PM2 .5, PM10, NO2, SO2 and O3 were 48.4 , 81.8 , 26.3 , 15.8 , 111.2 ? g/m3 respectively.PM10 and PM2 .5 concentrations were higher than the national class II standard.In single pollutant models,the relative risk of hospital admission due to respiratory system were as follows: With an increase of 10 ? g/m3 of PM2 .5, PM10, NO2, SO2 and O3, the increase of daily outpatient rate of respiratory system would be 0.52 %, 0.31 %, 3.54 %, 4.36 %, and 0.03 % respectively, and the SO2 effect was the strongest. The short-term exposure of air pollutants affects the daily outpatient rate of respiratory system, and there are lag effects, of which PM2 .5, PM10. NO2 and SO2 have stronger effects.
Key words:  Yancheng  Air pollution  Respiratory diseases  Time series analysis  Generalized additive model