| 摘要: |
| 根据2000—2012年全国城镇生活污水排放量数据，建立了相应的GM（1,1）模型和预测函数。通过后验差检验等对预测函数进行了评估，并对2013—2017年城镇生活污水排放量进行了预测，结果表明，2013—2017年全国城镇生活污水的排放量逐年增加，呈上升趋势，从2013年的477.273 6亿t上升到2017年的624.102 2亿t；灰色预测模型和方法简单易用，利用较少的数据即可进行精度较高的预测。 |
| 关键词: 城镇生活污水排放量 灰色预测 GM（1,1） 后验差检验 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:X32.012；U984 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Urban Wastewater Discharge Prediction Based on GM(1,1) Model |
|
YANG Xu1，WANG Xiao li21,2
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1.School of Water Conservancy and Environmental Engineering，Zhengzhou University，Zhengzhou，Henan
450001，China;2.School of Mechanics and Engineering Science，Zhengzhou University，Zhengzhou，Henan 450001，China
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| Abstract: |
| According to the 2000 2012 data of national urban wastewater discharge, the GM(1,1) mode and prediction function were established. The prediction function was assessed through the posterior variance test and the model was used to predict the 2013 2017 urban wastewater discharge. Finally the suggestions and measures about the control of urban wastewater discharge were proposed. |
| Key words: Urban wastewater discharge Gray prediction GM(1,1) Posterior variance test |
