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| 摘要: |
| 选取2015年1—8月江苏地区NAQPMS、CMAQ、CAMx、WRF-Chem 4个模式预报结果与实测值进行比对分析，结果表明，标准化分数偏差（MFB）为-0.066 5～0.201 1，标准化分数误差（MFE）最大值为0.381 8，均在理想范围内，其中CAMx预报效果相对较好，WRF-Chem有一定误差。4个模式相比，NAQPMS对于PM10的模拟性能较好，各模式对PM2.5模拟性能相近，CMAQ和CAMx对O3模拟较好，WRF-Chem对CO模拟较好，各模式对SO2和NO2的模拟都需进一步优化。 |
| 关键词: 江苏 空气质量 数值预报 模式检验 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:X520 |
| 文献标识码:B |
| 基金项目:江苏省环境监测科研基金资助项目（1202；1306） |
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| Comparative Study between Air Quality Forecast and Actual Measurement in Jiangsu Province |
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LU Weiqing， JIANG Fengqin， LIU Lixia， WANG Aiping
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| Abstract: |
| In this study， we compared the results from 4 model forecasts， including NAQPMS， CMAQ， CAMx， and WRF Chem， from January to August in 2015 in Jiangsu area with actual observation data. It was found that the mean fractional bias was between -0.066 5 and 0.201 1 and the maximum value of mean fractional error was 0.381 8. Both of them were in the ideal range. Of the four forecast models， CAMx predicted relatively better， and WRF Chem was somewhat erroneous in the prediction. NAQPMS simulated better for PM10， all of the four models simulated similar for PM2.5， CMAQ and CAMx simulated better for O3， and WRF Chem simulated better for CO. These forecasting models need further optimization for the simulation of SO2 and NO2. |
| Key words: Jiangsu Air quality Numerical forecast Model test |
