现代商业园区碳达峰路径规划关键技术研究

张保瑞; 孔震; 赵维; 王志光; 张昕; 蔡云江; 王靖韬; 李睿; 张超

引用本文:	ZHANG Baorui,KONG Zhen,ZHAO WEI,WANG Zhiguang,ZHANG Xin,CAI Yunjiang,WANG Jingtao,LI Rui,ZHANG Chao.Research on Key Technologies of Carbon Peak Path Planning in Modern Business Parks[J].Environmental Monitoring and Forewarning,2024,16(4):136~142

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现代商业园区碳达峰路径规划关键技术研究
张保瑞¹，孔震²，赵维^2*，王志光²，张昕²，蔡云江²，王靖韬²，李睿¹，张超²
1.国网雄安综合能源服务有限公司，河北保定 071700；2.北京南瑞数字技术有限公司，北京 100193

摘要:

以华北地区某现代商业园区为例开展碳达峰研究，分析了该园区2018—2022年的能源消耗和碳排放情况，利用对数平均迪氏指数（LMDI）法研究各驱动因素对碳排放的贡献，进而以长期能源替代规划（LEAP）模型为基础预测园区碳排放，探索园区减排潜力。研究结果表明：目前园区能耗和碳排放仍处在增长阶段，商业占据园区能耗和碳排放的主导地位；经济规模扩大和人口密度提高持续推动园区碳排放升高，而能耗强度和能源结构则是促进园区减排的主导因素；强化减排情景下，预计园区碳排放在2030年准时达峰，随后开始下降。未来园区将通过构建混联型低碳微网，建设低碳智慧楼宇，加强灵活性资源优化配置等措施助力园区如期达峰。

关键词: 现代商业园区碳排放贡献量 LEAP模型减排路径

DOI：DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1674-6732.2024.04.017

分类号:X1311

基金项目:国家科技部雄安新区科技创新专项（2022XAGG0116）

Research on Key Technologies of Carbon Peak Path Planning in Modern Business Parks

ZHANG Baorui¹， KONG Zhen²， ZHAO WEI^2*， WANG Zhiguang²， ZHANG Xin²， CAI Yunjiang²，  WANG Jingtao²， LI Rui¹， ZHANG Chao²

1. State Grid Xiong'an Comprehensive Energy Service Co., Ltd., Baoding，Hebei 071700, China； 2. Beijing Nanrui Digital Technology Co.,Ltd., Beijing 100193，China

Abstract:

This paper takes a modern business park in Northern China as an example to conduct a carbon peak study. Firstly，the energy consumption and carbon emissions of the park from 2018 to 2022 are sorted out. Then LMDI method was used to study the contribution of each driving factor to carbon emission. Based on LEAP model，the carbon emission of the park is predicted and the emission reduction potential of the park is explored. The results show that：at present，the carbon emission of the park is still in the growth stage，and the energy consumption and carbon emission of the park is dominated by business. The expansion of economic scale and the increase of population density continue to promote the increase of carbon emissions，while energy intensity and energy structure are the leading factors to promote the emission reduction. Under the enhanced emission reduction scenario，time to peak will be on time in 2030，and then carbon emissions will begin to decline and gradually become carbon neutral. In the future，the park will reach carbon peak on schedule by constructing a hybrid low-carbon micro-network and low-carbon smart buildings，and strengthening the optimal allocation of flexible resources.

Key words: Modern business park Carbon emission Contribution LEAP model Emission reduction path