| 摘要: |
| 生产单元是企业内部环境风险防控的最小节点。生产企业内部存在风险节点数量繁多、属性差异大且互相存在联级放大效应等问题，使得企业环境风险一直存在较大的不确定性，给企业环境风险事故源头防控带来很大困难。传统的企业环境风险量化评估方法侧重整体的环境风险评估，精细度不足，缺乏对生产单元间相互影响等复杂情况的考量，评估结果准确性较低，且评估成本高、效率低。针对企业内部生产单元层级事故风险难以厘清的问题，梳理了上万条环境风险重点关注行业的历史环境事故，创新性地构建了考量“群发/链发”情况的事故情景与概率矩阵；考量企业生产单元与风险物质复杂属性、事故情景特性、周边扩散条件、环境风险受体等多维因素，集成设计了一套企业环境风险事故全过程模拟模型。通过从事故情景构建到事故损害结果分析的全链路自动化模拟，实现对企业生产单元环境风险的量化评估，达到精准识别企业内高风险节点，提升企业风险防控能力的目的；最后，研究通过对比真实历史环境事故调查结果，验证模型模拟具有较高准确性。 |
| 关键词: 企业环境风险 生产单元 环境风险事故模拟模型 “群发/链发”环境事故 |
| DOI：DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1674-6732.2024.03.006 |
| 分类号:X820.4 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金重点项目（72234003） |
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| Simulation Model of Environmental Risk Accidents in Enterprise Production Units |
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ZHANG Weicheng1， YANG Ruiwen2， Liu Miaomiao2*
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1.Jiangsu Financial Leasing Co.，Ltd.， Nanjing， Jiangsu 210041， China；
2.State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse， School of Environment， Nanjing University， Nanjing， Jiangsu 210023， China
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| Abstract: |
| Production unit is the smallest node for enterprise environmental risk prevention and control. Enterprises face numerous risk nodes with diverse attributes and cascading effects，leading to significant uncertainties in environmental risks and posing great challenges to preventing and controlling the sources of environmental risk incidents in enterprises. Traditional methods of quantitative assessment of enterprise environmental risks mainly focus on assessing the overall environmental risks of the enterprise，with insufficient granularity，lack of consideration for the complex accidents resulting from interactions between production units，lower accuracy in assessment results，and high assessment costs and inefficiencies. This study addresses the difficulties in clarifying the hierarchical accident risks within internal production units faced by enterprises in environmental risk prevention and control. By reviewing thousands of environmental risk incidents in key industries of concern，an innovative accident scenario and probability matrix considering scenarios of “mass incidents/chain incidents” is developed. Taking into account multidimensional factors such as the complex attributes of risk substances in enterprise production units，accident scenario characteristics，surrounding diffusion conditions，and environmental risk receptors，a comprehensive simulation model of the entire process of environmental risk incidents in enterprises is designed. This model automates the full chain simulation of environmental incidents in internal production units from scenario construction to accident damage results，which realizes quantitative assessment of environmental risks in enterprise production units，accurately identify high risk nodes within the enterprise and enhance the capability of enterprise risk prevention and control. Finally，by comparing the results of real historical environmental incidents investigations，the high accuracy of the model simulation is verified. |
| Key words: Enterprise environmental risk Production unit Simulation of environmental risk accidents Simulation of “multiple occurrences/chain reactions” environmental risk accidents |
